"major-general safwat el-zayam said there was now a deep cleavage between the armed forces, represented by its supreme council, and the presidential authority represented by president hosni mubarak and his vice president omar suleiman...underling that the army will act as guarantor for the transition to full democracy."
n y times 2-11-2011
"entire nation is in the street. only way out is for the regeime to go. people power cannot be crushed. we shall prevail. still hope the army can join."
a tweet ( what kind of substance can you get in 140 charaters?) from nobel laureate mohamed elbaradei
"the armed forces stresses that there will be no detention of the honorable sons of the nation who rejected corruption and called for reform.
it stresses the importance of resuming work at government services and the return of normal life in oder to preserve the interests and the achievements of our great people."
egyptian military communique #2 2-11-2011
...but the bureaucrats still remain...and the military is telling them politely ( for now) to go back to work...and (politely for now) telling the "great people" of egypt that the party is over and it's time to get back to buisness...enough is enough..we will have no anacrchy here...and no doubt they will oversee the transition to a new governement, and no doubt that government will see the weakness of their position relative to the miltary guarantors...no doubt as well that the military will be the ones defining exactly who is and who is not an "honorable son"...motives will be paramount here and detention will be at their whim...if mohamed believes his tweet he is a fool...once again we can draw on the experiences of the countries of eastern europe after the demise of the "evil empire" as a template for likely outcomes...the power structure that hosni left behind isn't going anywhere...it may change its name and do some cosmetic firing or kicking upstairs...but the professional bureaucrats the army is telling to get the government in gear again won't be substantially changed...there's no-one to replace them with...no-one form the outside knows the jobs or has the contacts...the de-nazification of germany stalled out over this particualar isuue and quietly faded away after some high profile trials..then the ex-nazi water commissioners got back to the problem of rebuilding german infrastructure...the prohibition against former members of the ba'ath party in iraq participating in the new goverment lost its head of steam over precisely the same issue...most of the shi'ite that were newly elected had no idea where all the levers and switches were...nothing worked...back came the professionals...same fate for egypt's people power as for vacalv's velvet revolution or the people power advoicateds of leipzig...the ceausescus were executed in a post-modern televised revolution on christmas day ( check out andrei codrecu's "the hole in the flag" for an interestign an revealing take on the way power preserves itself and manipulates[or manufactures]popular uprisings) who runs romania now? anybody?
call me crates...partII
2-12-2011 5:37 a m
"whether ther military subordinates itself to a civillian government or installs a new milirary dictator will be immpossible to know for months. military lraders will inevitably be under prssure to deliver the genuine transitionthat protesters did not trust mr. mubarak to give them. yet it may aslo seek to protect the enormous political and economic privileges it accumulated during mt. mubarak's reign. the army has itself been infused for years with the notion that egypt's survivial depends on fighting threats, real and imagined, form foreign enemied, islamists, iran, and the frustrations of its own people."
n y times 2-12-2011
so the swiss have frozen hosni's billions...nothing extrodinary in that...what are the other generals worth? ( hosni was an air force general before he resigned and replaced anwar after that grisly assasination)...that business about "enormous political and economic privileges" has me wondering just how reform minded the generals are...will there be an actual accounting? or will some pliable officer suddenly retire and fill hosni's shoes? there was quite a bit of unrest in the late 70's in egypt...especially after anwar recognized the state of israel ( hence the automatic weapons fire at that military parade)...nobody worried about democracy then...it was about keeping the empire's foreign policy ducks in a row and hosni was willing to play along...so the empire supported him as long as he was useful in maintaining a staus quo in the region...it appears that greed eventually got the better of him as he and hs military cronies enriched themselves at the population's expense...the people lost their temper and hsoni was the most prominent figure in the line of fire so the generals let him take the fall...i haven't heard about any members of the supreme military council resigning and taking it on the lam...and now thry have something of a problem... would a genuinely democratic egypt be allowed to elect a government that wanted to move beyond hosni and see exactly who got what in the mubarak years....or abrogate egypt's recognition of israel's legitimacy? well, no...it boils down to whether the egyptian street will co-operate on a number of levels; 1) leaving the egyptian/israeli status as it is so the billions the egyptians receive form the empire every year to toe the line keep coming ( and what happen when the empire finally goes bust i wonder...no billions=no co-operation?)and; 2) not getting too nosey about those general's bank accounts...the street may not do either and there may be a genuine change, particualrly if the military continues to be reluctant to kill egyptians ( and. thankfully, that seems to be the case) or they could settle for a few economic reforms that give the populace a bigger slice of the pie...the latter seems more likely to me...everybody gets something...noticable change with minimal disruption.
2-12-2011 12:49 p m
"dispite this nod to populism, american officers who know them say that neither officer is fiercely pro-democracy, in fact one of them, field marshall mohamed heussein tantawi is seen as a strident opponent of political change. both are likely to have calcualted that protecting the military's status and credibility was more important than atanding behind an increasingly isolated and weakened president."
n y times 2-12-2011
it remains to be seen who has the most leverage here...youth in the street or bureaucrats in offices and military leaders in barracks...i have no sympathy with a trotskyite ideology of perpetual revolution, but as the protesters abandon possession of the streets and things begin to return to "normal" the balance tips in favor of the offices and the barracks...then again, how long can you stay in the streets?
yes...but who are they?
2-13-2011 7:40 a m
"in an announcement broadcast on state television an army spokesperson said egypt would continue to abide by all its international and regional treaties and current civilian leadership would manage the country's affairs until the formation of a new government. but he did not duscuss a timetable for any tranfer of power, and it was unclear how and when talks with opposition leaders would take place."
n y times 2-13-2011
so who constitutes "current civilain leadership"? professional bureaucrats who have been entrenched for thirty or more years...sounds like a prescripption for more of the same with some cosmetics applied...of course they will abide by their treaties...that is the only way to keep the imperial money spigot open...and that is the elixer of life for the military ( what other assets doe s egypt have besides their strategic position near israel and along the suez? they're being paid off to behave along lines acceptable to imperial foreign policy)...you have to think the stalling tactics have started already and you have to wonder once the protesters leave tahrir square how often and in what numbers they will be allowed back...and will the opposition splinter? was hosni the focus they could agree on and now self-interest kicks in? hard to know...always questions...the nature of humans tells me they have a long way to go before anything is decided...have a close look at iraq... can you call that a functioning government?
clean up and keep moving....nothing more to see here...
2-14-2011 4:30 a m
"egypt's military delivered an ultimatum to dozens of committed protesters in tahrir sqwuare, nereve center of a movement that toppled hosni mubarak, to leave and let life get back to normal."
"the military source said authorities were xpected to issue orders soon that would ban meetings by labor unions or professional syndicartes, effectively forbidding strikes, and telllegyptians to get back to work."
reuters 2-`14-2011
economy first, freedom, elections, new constitution...whenever...normalcy is what's needed now...at least tha's what the military thinks...probably a lot of cairenes too...i heard and egyptian author on the bbc this morning...she said tha for twenty days people on anti-depressants had forgotten to take their medication and that now they have "thrown their pills away, that is the impact of the fall of hosni mubarak"...of course...they're high as kites on a manic phase...they will want those pills back soon enough...the cycle does not care who runs the country...she sounded like nothing so much as a sandinidta poet from 1979 or so...waxing about "the people"...well...danny ortega is back in nicaraguan politics but he has been turned to the dark side...spewing "freee market" and "chicago consensus" nonsense...take a lesson...will the military allow the "victory march" next friday? probably...but they aren't going to let anyone stay behind when it's over..."step lively...move along...your job is waiting."
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