"these experts are all working within certain conceptual and administrative conventions that parse reality into bite-size chunks that journalists, researchers, officials, and policy makers can cope with . the specialization seems to help them get abetter grasp of the issues.
in a generalized system the opposite is the case; the compartmentalization that specialization brings with it precludes a clear overview, one that would tell us that things are far more dangerous , and the dangers likely more imminent than we thought. thus specialists can tell us that a 1 degree celsius rise in global temperatures will probably lead to a fall in global crop yields of 10%. but to calculate figures like these specialists have to make assumptions about the context in which a 1 degree celsius rise will happen. the normal assumption is ceteris paribus: all other things being equal or staying the same. however, in a general system crisis, most relevant 'other things' are not staying the same. they are changing and very often in an unfavorable way, because one problem exacerbates the others in a chain reaction that becomes a cascade of knock on effects. thus, for example, plants grown in warmer temperatures that they are acclimatized to will need adequate water to suit those altered conditions, and if there is a depleted level of fossil water to draw upon, then crop yields may fall a lot more. "
"danger ahead" prioritizing risk avoidance in political and economic decision making." by brian davey
capital is boxed in by its need to generate continued growth to insure continued profit. growth and profit are both centered in what is happening "now" which leads to a myopia in long-term vision. the focus on what is happening now is a root cause of the volatility in the stock markets, making them sensitive short-term events. since long-term vision is secondary it leads economists, analysts, and investors into what economic historian werner abelshauser calls a lack of "catastrophe consciousness". a more holistic view of economic activity, its limits and impacts, is missing. long-term events such as climate change and resource depletion are discounted or dismissed. inapplicable because of time scale or the placebo of a technological fix that may or may not exist. then again given their tendency to panic being mired in the short-term thinking may save them from simply giving up and going home...the end will be a surprise for them...something of a mercy in its own way...they have enough angst in their zeitgeist at the moment...why burden them with a wider view
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